Balram Sampla
Geopolitics
(Asian independent) Saudi Arabia is under real pressure. The Houthis have seized Mokha, taken islands near Bab el-Mandeb, and knocked out the East-West Pipeline for weeks. Oil is up about 20% this month and fuel prices are climbing worldwide.
This is exactly what the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was supposed to cover. But when the Houthi attacks hit, neither Turkey nor Pakistan sent forces. Only statements of solidarity. Whether that’s really about an India-focused agenda, as opposed to reluctance to be pulled into a fight with Iran (which both have said explicitly), is speculation by some analysts, not something confirmed by reporting so far.
With that alliance underdelivering, Mohammad Bin Salman, (MBS) has gone shopping: Trump declined direct US intervention, the UK has offered only military advisors, and Riyadh is now quietly seeking Israeli intelligence help through CENTCOM.
Since the wider Iran war began in late February 2026, Iran has repeatedly struck US bases across the Gulf:
(I) Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet headquarters was damaged,
(II) Kuwait saw a drone strike that killed six US soldiers at Port Shuaiba plus a separate friendly-fire incident that downed three American F-15s, and
(III) bases in Jordan , Iraq and UAE have also been hit.
It’s a real and unusual run of losses for a force long seen as untouchable in the region, and it has visibly shaken Gulf states’ confidence that US bases guarantee their safety rather than make them targets.
China
China is fast becoming military superpower. It is already economic superpower.
China is benefiting is well-supported. Analysts across Carnegie, Chatham House, and Foreign Policy confirm that China isn’t trying to replace the US militarily :
(I) It hasn’t sent forces,
(II) hasn’t tried to reopen Hormuz,
(III) stayed out of the earlier Red Sea naval coalition entirely.
Its gain is much quieter, Gulf states watching the US get bloodied are hedging, buying Chinese drones and missiles, and deepening trade ties with Beijing, all while China spends nothing and risks nothing.
One analyst called it winning “without firing a shot.” A real strategic gain, but it’s an economic and diplomatic.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia’s alliance network is being tested and found wanting, the US is absorbing real costs it hasn’t absorbed in decades, and China is the clearest beneficiary of a war it isn’t even fighting.
Reference
1.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/1/us-military-says-launching-new-attacks-on-iran
2.https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-tehran-united-states-strikes-9.7329030
3.https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/07/middle-east-north-africa-united-states-china-trade-military-diplomacy
4.https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/17/iran-war-china-benefit-united-states-energy-economics-geopolitics-trump-xi/
5.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/how-china-is-gaining-from-iran-war-by-showing-it-is-different-from-us
