Balram Sampla
A Political Analysis
Geopolitics
(Asian independent) Perception matters in politics. A government can stay within its own fiscal rules and still lose public confidence if voters believe the money is going to the wrong places. That risk has hung over Labour throughout this parliament, and it has now cost one prime minister his job.
The numbers feed the unease. The OBR ( Office for Budget Responsibilty) forecasts welfare spending rising by £18 billion this year, then by about £15 billion a year after that.
Health and disability benefits are the sharpest example: forecast at £83.4 billion in 2025/26, already above defence, and heading for £99.6 billion by 2028/29.
Meanwhile the NHS waiting list stands at 7.37 million treatments, with around 65% of patients treated within 18 weeks against a pledge of 92% by 2029.
Schools and local services are under strain. To many voters it looks like a country paying more for welfare while hospitals and public services go short. (Spring Statement 2026)
Labour’s record on reform adds to the impression of drift. Under Keir Starmer, attempts to tighten disability benefits provoked a backbench rebellion and were watered down, and the OBR judged that the planned savings would be smaller than ministers claimed. The government also scrapped the two-child limit, at a cost of £2.3 billion in 2026-27 rising to £3 billion by 2029-30.
Whatever its merits, critics saw more spending on benefits just as other priorities went unfunded.
Defence became the flashpoint
Defence turned the argument into a political crisis. In June, John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary, saying the £10bn pledged was far below the £28bn experts say is needed over ten years. He argued that Britain must set a date of 2030 for spending 3% of GDP on defence. His resignation helped bring down Starmer’s government, and Andy Burnham became prime minister in July.
The sequel has added to the sense of drift. Burnham made Healey Chancellor, but Healey’s first Budget on 28 October will not commit to 3% by 2030. It will focus on funding the existing defence investment plan, with the timetable left to next year’s spending review.
Spending is on track for only 2.7% of GDP by 2030. Critics note that the man who quit over this target now holds the power to meet it. Many voters will see another case of promises outrunning delivery, whatever the constraints.
The constraints are real
Healey’s defenders point out that the job looks different from the Treasury. He has pledged to keep the fiscal rules and told ministers to prepare for cuts, and experts warn there is no room for extra borrowing. More defence spending therefore means higher taxes or cuts to welfare, health or other services, the very trade-offs voters resent.
The government says Healey will set out a clear path to 3.5% by 2035, including a date for 3%, and that this is better than an unfunded promise now.
The other side
Labour’s defenders also say the wider picture is exaggerated. Welfare spending is forecast to fall below income tax receipts from 2026/27 for the first time since at least 2013/14. The OBR expects growth in incapacity benefit caseloads to slow to 1.3%, from 3% previously expected. The NHS backlog also predates Labour, having doubled in the decade before the pandemic.
Conclusion
Labour Party “losing grip” is a fair assessment, it is politically powerful.
A leadership change, a Chancellor accused of backing away from his own target, and a cost-of-living squeeze all reinforce it. The 28th October Budget and next year’s spending review will show whether Labour can turn the perception around, or whether the gap between official figures and daily experience keeps widening.
References
1.https://www.vodg.org.uk/resource/spring-statement-2026.html
2.https://fullfact.org/economy/tony-blair-disability-benefits-defence-spending/
3.https://www.smoothradio.com/news/uk-world/nhs-waiting-list-at-its-worst-since-2025-new/
4.https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/healeys-budget-to-ditch-3-defence-spending-target-by-2030-5Hjdgf4_2/
5.https://newswav.com/article/healey-tells-ministers-to-prepare-to-make-cuts-to-fund-burnham-s-new-pledge-A2608_XiXFOf
