With the IMF, World Bank and ADB upgrading their forecasts, India’s post-pandemic economic performance is reinforcing its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
(Asian independent) India’s economic rise is once again commanding global attention. Leading international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB), have all raised their growth forecasts for India to above 7 per cent for both this year and next, underlining confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. According to Kyunghoon Kim of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, India’s performance over the past decade deserves far greater recognition. He argues that sustaining rapid growth in a country of 1.4 billion people is an achievement of global significance, particularly at a time when many advanced and emerging economies are struggling to maintain momentum.
The foundations of that assessment lie in India’s remarkable recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. After contracting by 5.8 per cent during the crisis, the economy rebounded by 9.7 per cent in 2021 and has since recorded growth above 7 per cent in each of the following four years. Economists repeatedly revised their forecasts upward as India’s quarterly GDP data consistently surprised on the upside. The country’s recent performance is exceptional by historical standards. Between 2021 and 2025, India recorded an average annual growth rate of 7.83 per cent, the second highest five-year average since 1960. It narrowly trails the 7.89 per cent achieved during the 2003-2007 expansion that first established India as a major global growth engine.
What distinguishes the current growth cycle is its scale. India’s GDP has expanded from just over $1 trillion in 2007 to nearly $4 trillion today. As a result, each percentage point of growth now generates substantially greater economic output than during the country’s earlier boom years. International institutions expect the momentum to continue. The World Bank recently projected growth of 7.1 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand and strong exports, while the IMF has upgraded its forecast to 7 per cent. Challenges remain, sustaining growth will require continued progress in job creation, skills development, productivity gains and broader inclusion. Global economic uncertainty, commodity prices and geopolitical tensions also pose risks.
Yet the broader conclusion is increasingly difficult to dispute. India’s post-pandemic recovery has evolved into one of the strongest economic expansions in the world. As the country moves towards becoming one of the three largest economies globally, its recent growth record stands not merely as a national achievement, but as one of the defining economic stories of the decade.
Sumana Adak, UK
