THE ASIAN INDEPENDENT UK
Bal Ram Sampla
Geopolitics
In December 2024, India signed a major trade agreement with Oman that has serious consequences for Turkey’s economy. This deal wasn’t just about opening new markets. It was a calculated move to reduce India’s dependence on Turkish imports, particularly marble, while creating more jobs at home. The timing and design of this agreement show how trade policy can be used as a strategic tool in international relations.
The Marble Problem
For years, Turkey dominated India’s marble imports. Out of the $340 million worth of marble blocks India imported annually, nearly $189 million came from Turkey. This gave Turkey significant economic leverage and meant substantial revenue flowing from India to Turkey each year.
But marble blocks are just raw material. When India imported finished marble products from Turkey, it was paying for both the stone and the labor to process it. This meant jobs and profits stayed in Turkey instead of coming to India.
Oman’s Special Arrangement
The India-Oman trade deal changed everything. Oman agreed to lift its ban on exporting raw marble blocks, but only for India. No other country received this privilege. This exclusive access gave India a new supplier that could directly replace Turkish marble.
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was clear about the purpose. The Oman deal would let Indian companies “replace imports from Turkey” and get marble blocks at better prices. By switching suppliers from Turkey to Oman, India could cut Turkey out of this profitable trade relationship.
Creating Jobs at Home
The strategy goes beyond just changing suppliers. India’s plan focuses on importing raw blocks instead of finished products. When raw marble arrives in India, it needs to be cut, polished, and processed into tiles and flooring. All of this work creates jobs for Indian workers.
India’s marble processing industry, worth about $5 billion, is concentrated in states like Rajasthan and Gujarat. By importing 1.3 million metric tons of raw blocks annually and processing them domestically, India keeps the value addition and employment within its own borders. What Turkey used to earn from processing marble, Indian businesses and workers now earn instead.
The Political Backdrop
This economic move didn’t happen in isolation. Relations between India and Turkey had grown tense in recent months. Turkey consistently supported Pakistan on various international issues, which irritated Indian officials. Turkey’s vocal stance on Kashmir and other sensitive matters created friction.
The Oman deal gave India a way to respond without direct confrontation. Rather than imposing tariffs or sanctions, India simply found an alternative supplier. This approach inflicts economic pain on Turkey while maintaining the appearance of normal business decisions.
## Why This Hurts Turkey
The impact on Turkey is significant for several reasons. First, losing nearly $189 million in annual marble exports is a direct hit to Turkish mining companies and exporters. In an economy struggling with currency devaluation and inflation, losing major export markets matters.
Second, this isn’t just about one year’s sales. Once Indian companies establish relationships with Omani suppliers and set up processing operations for Omani marble, they’re unlikely to return to Turkish suppliers. The market share Turkey loses could be permanent.
Third, the psychological impact extends beyond marble. If India successfully replaces Turkish marble, it sends a message that Turkey is not an indispensable trading partner. Other countries watching this situation might consider similar moves, making Turkey more vulnerable economically.
India’s Broader Strategy
The Oman agreement represents a larger pattern in Indian trade policy. India is actively working to reduce dependencies on countries it views as politically problematic while strengthening ties with strategic partners. Oman, located at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is geographically and politically important to India.
By giving Oman preferential access to Indian markets for marble exports, India strengthens this partnership. Oman benefits from new export revenue, and India secures a reliable supplier that won’t use trade as political leverage. Both countries gain at Turkey’s expense.
The emphasis on domestic processing also fits India’s “Make in India” initiative, which aims to boost manufacturing and job creation. Every marble tile processed in Rajasthan instead of Istanbul represents jobs transferred from Turkey to India.
Turkey’s Limited Options
Turkey faces difficult choices in responding. It could try to lower prices to compete with Oman, but this would reduce profit margins. It could seek other markets for its marble exports, but finding buyers for nearly $200 million in annual exports isn’t simple.
Turkey could also attempt to improve political relations with India, but this would require backing away from its support for Pakistan, which Turkey is unlikely to do. The Turkish government has made solidarity with Pakistan a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Economic retaliation against India is another option, but Turkey imports more from India than it exports, making this a risky strategy. Any Turkish tariffs on Indian goods could provoke counter-measures that hurt Turkey more.
Conclusion
India’s trade agreement with Oman demonstrates how economic policy can serve strategic goals. By securing exclusive access to Omani marble and processing it domestically, India simultaneously weakens Turkey economically, creates jobs at home, and strengthens ties with Oman.
For Turkey, this represents a painful lesson in how trade relationships can shift quickly when political tensions rise. The loss of the Indian marble market won’t cripple Turkey’s economy, but it inflicts real damage while setting a precedent that other countries might follow.
This episode shows that in modern international relations, trade agreements can be as powerful as traditional diplomatic or military tools. India didn’t need sanctions or public confrontation to pressure Turkey. It simply found a better partner and redirected hundreds of millions of dollars in trade. The result is economic pain for Turkey, jobs for India.
References
1.https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-oman-fta-lets-muscat-export-marble-blocks-reducing-new-delhis-dependence-on-turkey/2809285/
2.https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/oman-allows-marble-block-exports-to-india-under-cepa-boosting-domestic-processing
3.https://indiashippingnews.com/oman-allowed-marble-block-exports-to-india-under-trade-pact-goyal/
4.https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/business/3736191-omans-marble-opens-new-opportunities-for-indias-industry
