THE ASIAN INDEPENDENT UK
Bal Ram Sampla
Geopolitics
Imagine a single door that controls almost a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Now imagine that door is slammed shut. That is, in simple terms, what happened on February 28, 2026, when Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. What followed has sent shockwaves through energy markets, economies, and the daily lives of billions of people.
The crisis began after joint US-Israeli military strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Iran’s response was swift and severe: it shut the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would attack oil infrastructure. True to its word, Iran struck Fujairah — a key UAE port sitting just outside the Strait that was specifically built to move oil around such a blockade. Tanker traffic through the strait collapsed by around 70% almost immediately, then fell to near zero.
As one energy economist put it, closing the Strait of Hormuz is like blocking the aorta of the global oil system. Unlike past threats, this one is real.
Russia Steps In — and Sees an Opportunity
Russia, whose oil largely travels overland or through northern ports, is largely unaffected by the Hormuz closure. It has been quick to position itself as an alternative supplier. Russia’s Embassy assured India — one of the world’s biggest oil buyers — that Moscow stands ready to meet its energy needs. For Russia, this crisis is a rare moment of leverage. Sanctions and Western pressure had pushed India to quietly reduce Russian oil purchases, but energy desperation may reverse that trend rapidly.
Asia Will Feel the Pain Most
China, India, Japan, and South Korea together account for nearly 70% of all oil that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. These countries have little time to waste.
Japan and South Korea are especially vulnerable. Their strategic reserves would last only two to four weeks at normal consumption rates. India faces a double blow — not only does it import large volumes of Gulf oil, but much of its natural gas is also priced in relation to crude oil, so both costs rise at once. Pakistan and Bangladesh, with weaker finances and limited storage, could face near-immediate power cuts and rationing.
Europe Has Its Own Problem
Europe is watching this crisis while already dealing with a separate pipeline dispute. The Druzhba pipeline — which carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia — was damaged in a Ukrainian drone strike in January. The EU has been pressing Ukraine to allow inspectors in to assess the damage and speed up repairs. Ukraine’s President Zelensky has refused, citing the danger to workers from ongoing Russian attacks.
Meanwhile, a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas also travels through the Strait of Hormuz. European gas prices have already surged more than 20%, arriving at the worst possible time: European gas stockpiles are unusually low after a harsh winter.
What Happens to Prices?
Oil prices have already jumped 10-13%. Major banks warn that a sustained closure could push the price of a barrel of oil beyond $120-130 — roughly double where it was before the crisis. Even Americans, who no longer rely on Middle Eastern oil directly, are expected to see gasoline prices rise by 10 to 85 cents per gallon depending on the region.
Higher oil prices are not just about filling up your car. Energy costs feed into almost everything: food transport, manufacturing, plastics, fertilisers, electricity. When oil spikes, inflation tends to follow — and higher inflation means higher interest rates, tighter household budgets, and slower economic growth worldwide.
The Bigger Picture
The world has faced oil shocks before — in 1973, in 1979, and after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Each time, the economic damage was severe and long-lasting. What makes 2026 different is that the crisis is happening at a moment of multiple overlapping pressures: a war in Europe, strained US-China relations, already-weakened economies recovering from years of high inflation, and gas storage at low levels.
The single biggest factor is time. A short disruption — days or a couple of weeks — is painful but manageable. Strategic reserves exist for exactly this kind of emergency. A blockade lasting months, however, would be a different story entirely, pushing fragile economies toward recession and creating a humanitarian crisis in the world’s most import-dependent nations.
Why This Matters to Everyone
It can be tempting to see events in the Gulf as distant — something happening far away on tankers and in oil fields most people will never see. But the Strait of Hormuz is one of those invisible threads that holds the modern world together. When it is cut, the effects land quickly and personally: on heating bills, grocery prices, airline tickets, and job security.
The crisis of 2026 is a powerful reminder that the global economy remains deeply dependent on a handful of narrow geographic chokepoints — and that politics, war, and geography can still bring the modern world to a sudden, expensive
References
1.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/strait-of-hormuz-how-iran-conflict-is-disrupting-key-oil-shipping-route
2.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz
3.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/experts-weigh-potential-scenarios-for-oil-if-strait-of-hormuz-closes.html
4.https://www.npr.org/2026/03/02/nx-s1-5732287/iran-war-oil-gasoline-prices
5.https://fortune.com/2026/03/02/energy-markets-relatively-small-reaction-iran-war-prices-spike-oil-gas-flowing-end-week/
6.https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/02/28/strait-of-hormuz-closure-could-spike-oil-prices-70-percent
