THE ASIAN INDEPENDENT UK
By – Vivek Sakpal
Election Analysis in India is usually around caste arithmetic, campaign topics, pre-election freebies, personality, charisma, and communication skills of the party leaders, and now with the added topic of Vote Chori and Vote Kharidi. Social media is overloaded with content as to what clicked with the voter, while many of these are also subconscious biases of the speaker or author. Influencers add on to their “expert viewpoint” with secondary information and serve their audience.
Bihar is known as a state with high political literacy. Post 2024 General Elections results, every political analyst was keenly awaiting the Bihar verdict and had their own predictions ready with an impact on the Union Government.
Every party has a secured vote bank and a floating vote bank. Ultimately, it should be that the total votes are reflected. In First Past the Post (FPTP), we need to dig a bit deeper to see the real picture and management of political parties at the ground level.
| Total Seats | 243 | ||
| Party | FPTP Seats | % Votes | PR Seats |
| BJP | 89 | 20.08 | 49 |
| JDU | 85 | 19.25 | 47 |
| RJD | 25 | 23 | 56 |
| LJP RV | 19 | 4.97 | 12 |
| INC | 6 | 8.71 | 21 |
| AIMIM | 5 | 1.85 | 4 |
| HAMS | 5 | 0 | |
| RSHTLKM | 4 | 0 | |
| CPI ML | 2 | 2.84 | 7 |
| IIP | 1 | 0 | |
| CPI M | 1 | 0.6 | 1 |
| BSP | 1 | 1.62 | 4 |
| 243 | 0 | ||
| CPI | 0 | 0.74 | 2 |
| AAAP | 0 | 0.3 | 1 |
| NCP | 0 | 0.03 | 0 |
| NOTA | 0 | 1.18 | 3 |
| Others | 0 | 14 | 34 |
| 241 | |||
| As per Data available on ECI website | |||
We should also look at the two major alliances with their key players.
| If Proportional Representation | ||
| NDA | BJP+JUD+LJP RV | 108 |
| MGB | RJD+INC+Left | 85 |
We notice that the NDA would still be forming a government along with the help of some independents and small regional players, as they would not be crossing the halfway mark.
Let’s analyse a few seats where the winning margin is less than 1000 votes.
| Constituency | Winning Margin |
| AGIAON | 95 |
| BAKHTIARPUR | 981 |
| BALRAMPUR | 389 |
| BODH GAYA | 881 |
| CHANPATIA | 602 |
| DHAKA | 178 |
| FORBESGANJ | 221 |
| JEHANABAD | 793 |
| NABINAGAR | 112 |
| RAMGARH | 30 |
| SANDESH | 27 |
One may dig more into the constituency data to find the winner, runner-up and second runner-up, and come up with reasons such as caste, spoiler candidates, number of independent candidates, B Team etc. But what we would miss is that the voter has given near equal number of votes to both the top two candidates, the winning percentage is as low as 0.03% in Sandesh. This is the biggest drawback of FPTP.
This is the true political literacy of Bihar; they have given a clear hung verdict, not siding totally with one alliance or political leader. Both alliances have a chance to form the government with the support of small regional players and independents, depending on their political will.
The Law Commission of India’s 170th Report, titled “Reform of the Electoral Laws”, was submitted in 1999 and recommends various electoral reforms to make the system more representative, fair, and transparent. This report was directed towards the Mixed Member Proportional Representation Model. Many Election Commissioners have advocated PR post their retirement.
Our voters are wise; the verdict, if read through the lens of Proportional Representation, shall give us a totally different perspective as to what the electorate really wants.
Indian parties, their leaders are aware of Proportional Representation and its impact on the Quality of Democracy. Our leaders boast that we are the World’s Largest Democracy, but none can proudly say, “We are the world’s BEST Democracy”.
