THE ASIAN INDEPENDENT UK
Bal Ram Sampla
Geopolitics
On July 4, 2024, Keir Starmer won one of the biggest election victories in British history. Labour gained 211 more seats than the previous election, giving them a huge majority in Parliament. It looked like the start of something big. But eighteen months later, Starmer is being called a “dead man walking” by politicians and comment
ators alike. His approval ratings are the worst for any prime minister since records began in 1977.
Meanwhile, a popular alternative within his own party is being deliberately blocked from returning to Parliament. This is the story of how it all went wrong, and remarkably quickly.
The Victory That Wasn’t Really a Victory
The first thing to understand is that Starmer’s win was built on shaky ground. Labour’s actual vote share only went up by 1.6 percent compared to the previous election. He didn’t win because people loved Labour—he won because people hated the Conservatives. Voters wanted to get rid of the Tories after fourteen years of chaos, scandals, and economic struggles.
Starmer just happened to be the alternative. As one expert put it, he won on a Tory collapse, not a Labour revival.
How Long Did the Honeymoon Last?
The brutal answer is: barely at all. Most new prime ministers get at least a few months where the public gives them the benefit of the doubt. Not Starmer. By August 2024—just one month after taking office—his honeymoon was already ending. The violence and riots that erupted after the Southport stabbings in late July became the first major crisis, and his handling of it split opinion immediately.
By early August, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced there was a £22 billion hole in the public finances and warned that tax rises were coming. This broke Labour’s election promise not to raise taxes, and people felt betrayed.
He’d had to cancel his planned vacation to deal with the riots. Instead of celebrating, he was warning the country that things would be “painful” and require “short term pain for long term good.”
So the answer is simple: Starmer’s honeymoon lasted about three to four weeks. By the end of his first month, it was over.
The Mistakes That Killed His Support
Once the brief honeymoon ended, Starmer made a series of decisions that turned voters against him. The biggest was cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners. This policy angered older voters who’d supported Labour, and it made Starmer look cruel and out of touch.
Then came broken promises. Labour had said they wouldn’t raise major taxes, but they did. They’d promised to fix the economy and public services, but instead talked constantly about how terrible everything was without offering hope or solutions.
The early prisoner releases to deal with overcrowded jails made people feel unsafe.Tax rises on businesses upset the business community that had supported him. Welfare cuts angered the left wing of his own party.
Everything he did seemed to upset someone, and crucially, he offered no inspiring vision to balance out the pain.
Why It Got So Bad So Fast
By January 2025, Starmer had become historically unpopular. Only 13 percent of people were satisfied with his performance, while 79 percent were dissatisfied. This gave him a net approval rating of minus 66—the worst since records began.
But here’s the truly devastating part: even his own voters turned on him. A majority of people who voted Labour in 2024 now disapprove of the government, think Starmer is doing a bad job, and believe Labour is handling most issues badly. Among Labour voters, 67 percent think the government is handling taxation badly.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken Labour in the polls. Reform now leads by about 9 to 10 points, polling around 30 percent while Labour sits at just 18-20 percent. This is extraordinary—a party that won a landslide six months ago is now in third place.
The Andy Burnham Factor: The Threat Starmer Fears Most
While Starmer’s popularity was collapsing, one Labour politician was going in the opposite direction: Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. And this is where the story gets explosive.
Burnham is everything Starmer is not. He has a net approval rating of plus 31 in Greater Manchester, undoubtedly popular with his electorate and higher than most national politicians (British Brief) . He won his third mayoral term in 2024 with a crushing 63 percent of the vote. By August 2025, polls identified Burnham as the most popular senior Labour figure .
More importantly, Burnham represents hope and optimism. He utilized a soft-left platform advocating for wealth taxes and proportional representation, positioning himself as an optimistic alternative to Starmer’s perceived gloomy approach to governance. He earned the nickname “King of the North” for standing up for Northern communities during COVID and successfully bringing the bus network into public ownership. People outside Greater Manchester wanted “their own Andy Burnham.”
In January 2026, a perfect opportunity arose for Burnham to return to Parliament. Andrew Gwynne, the Labour MP for Gorton and Denton, resigned citing health grounds . This was a safe Labour seat—Gwynne had won it with 50.8 percent of the vote and a majority of 13,413 in 2024. It appeared to be arranged specifically for Burnham to win and return to Westminster, positioning him for a potential leadership challenge.
The “Stitch-Up” That Sparked Revolt
But then Starmer and his allies struck. Eight out of ten members of Labour’s National Executive Committee, including Starmer himself, voted to block Andy Burnham from standing in the by-election. The official excuse was that allowing Burnham to run would trigger an expensive mayoral by-election and “divert resources away” from May’s elections.
Nobody believed this. Everyone knew what was really happening: Starmer was terrified that Burnham would win the seat, return to Parliament as a hero, and challenge him for the leadership when Labour inevitably crashed in May’s elections.
The backlash was immediate and fierce. The Fire Brigades Union called it “a democratic outrage”. Former Cabinet minister Louise Haigh called it “incredibly disappointing.” Momentum, a Labour campaign group, said it was “the beginning of the end for Starmer’s Government”. Even Deputy PM Angela Rayner reportedly thought it was a mistake.
Most tellingly, Burnham criticized Labour for telling the media about the NEC’s decision before telling him, saying “The fact that the media was informed of the NEC decision before I was tells you everything you need to know about the way the Labour Party is being run these days” .
Why Burnham Terrifies Starmer
Even more frightening for Starmer, people believe Burnham could actually win the Gorton and Denton by-election despite Labour’s collapse. Without Burnham as the candidate, the seat is now a genuine three-way fight between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens. Current polling shows Labour on 29 percent, Reform on 27 percent, and the Greens on 24 percent (X) . Labour could lose a seat they won with a 13,000 majority just six months ago.
The by-election is now scheduled for February 26, 2026, and it’s become a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. If Labour loses, the pressure on him will be unbearable.
The Deeper Problem
The speed of Starmer’s collapse and his desperate move to block Burnham reveals something deeper. He had no real mandate from voters, no compelling vision, and no emotional connection with the public. When times got tough and he had to make difficult choices, there was no reservoir of goodwill to draw on.
People voted for him to get rid of the Conservatives, not because they believed in him. Once he disappointed them—which he did almost immediately—there was nothing holding their support. The foundation was hollow, and it crumbled in months rather than years.
Meanwhile, Burnham represents everything Labour voters wanted but didn’t get: optimism, authenticity, someone who actually delivered for working people, someone who stood up to the government rather than became its embodiment of gloom.
What Happens Next
As things stand in January 2026, Starmer’s future looks bleak. The Gorton and Denton by-election on February 26 is the first test. If Labour loses or barely wins what should be a safe seat, it will prove Starmer is electoral disaster. Then come May’s council elections, where Labour faces potential wipeouts in Wales, Scotland, and London.
Even with Burnham blocked from Parliament for now, he remains the alternative waiting in the wings. His mayoral term ends in 2028, and senior Labour figures have already said they look forward to seeing him back in Parliament “in due course.” Everyone knows what that means.
From landslide victory to political crisis in eighteen months. From prime minister to “dead man walking” in less than a year. From commanding his party to so desperate that he has to block his most popular politician from even standing for election. Keir Starmer’s story is a warning about what happens when a leader wins power without winning hearts, when promises meet reality with no plan to bridge the gap, and when a politician becomes so unpopular that his own party’s popular figures become threats rather than assets.
His honeymoon lasted weeks. His fall has been one of the fastest in British political history. And now, with Andy Burnham waiting in the wings and May’s elections approaching, the end may be closer than anyone imagined possible when he won that massive majority just eighteen months ago.
References
1.https://britbrief.co.uk/politics/westminster/labour-civil-war-looms-after-starmer-blocks-burnham.html
2.https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-26/starmer-faces-backlash-as-labour-blocks-burnham-by-election-bid
3.https://europeanconservative.com/articles/commentary/keir-starmer-dead-man-walking/
4.https://www.irishtimes.com/world/uk/2025/12/26/starmer-under-siege-the-runners-riders-and-risks-of-labours-next-power-struggle/
5.https://labourlist.org/2025/12/andy-burnham-popularity-labour-members-survation/
6.https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-24/andy-burnham-says-he-will-stand-in-gorton-and-denton-by-election
