(Asian independent) Whenever Pakistan is discussed, it invariably gets associated with mutual distrust, having fought four wars with India (1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999) besides sponsoring a spate of terror and proxy war in the Indian state (currently Union Territory) of J&K. Pakistan’s own history has somewhat not been so people-friendly due to a lack of democracy wherein no elected PM could ever complete his/her term of full five years in one go.
While the country has been ruled by the military for more than half of its independent existence, even with the military officially out of power, it has remained the architect of Pakistan’s defence, Kashmir, nuclear and foreign policy, running the country as a supra-state.
There have been multiple attempts to reconcile differences between the two countries, post-independence, by various leaders but peace has eluded both nations. They have been at loggerheads and have missed out on various opportunities to establish peaceful relations with each other for decades, despite vast similarities in customs, language, cuisine and culture.
Intermittent efforts were made to enhance people-to-people contact to develop an ecosystem to facilitate a healthy co-existence and growth but did not yield any fruitful results. Track II diplomacy has given some results “off” and “on” but core issues remain seemingly intractable wherein Pakistan is not able to reconcile its partition-era legacy of J&K obsession, which lost its resonance with the abrogation of Article 370, with a deteriorating economy and rickety political structure.
The current economic crisis in Sri Lanka has also caused unprecedented human suffering presumably because of Chinese “debt trap”. Despite this, there are still huge challenges for India. On similar lines, Pakistan is also likely to get fully submerged with Chinese predatory loans through the CPEC corridor project and other investment lures.
Unemployment and inflation are touching record levels in Pakistan and the day is not far when Pakistan will also follow the Sri Lankan path of distress and collapse. Such an adverse economic condition of our neighbouring nation is not good for India at all.
While Pakistan navigates this situation of economic distress, it has again been hit by another political crisis wherein the Imran Khan government recommended dissolution of National Assembly and recommended fresh general elections. Now that the Supreme Court ruled the unconstitutional the abrogation of the National Assembly by the Deputy Speaker as invalid, there are chances that Imran Khan’s Premiership may have to bite the dust.
A silver lining may be evident in attitudinal change within Pakistan’s top military brass, who may be likely or willing to discuss and maybe, just maybe, pave the way for resolving the outstanding disputes with India bilaterally. Though it appears a little bit strange to expect a genuine change in Pakistan’s military despite their open utterances on this count, there is a need to believe this and unravel this thread.
In fact, some analysts believe that the Pakistan Army does not want to see Pakistan as a failed state as it cannot survive for long on IMF, Chinese and Saudi Arabian loans and has to build its own economy, trade between India and Pakistan forming the crux.
In fact, a mild trade proposal was pushed by Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa but stonewalled by Imran Khan’s delirious leadership, which had become stridently anti-India over the last three years. Absence of these trade relations resulted in very high prices in Pakistan where, as per prevailing memes on social media, price of basic vegetables such as potatoes and tomatoes became almost 10 times higher, compared to prices in India.
The suffering of the Pakistani population has probably been realised by the top military leadership, especially Gen Bajwa, who considers himself a statesman par excellence. The Pakistani military understand that direct trade between India and Pakistan is the key not only to just economic growth but for Pakistan’s troubles on its Western borders where a recalcitrant Taliban has refused to follow its masters’ bidding.
The fact that a year back, the ceasefire agreement on the Line of Control was reiterated and reinforced, leading to an unusual peace on the line on fire, serves as a positive reminder that the Pakistani military needs to be engaged by India. Deft diplomacy and engagement may lead to a renewed chance of peace and stability in the subcontinent. Due to the geographic connect, place and progress must be given a chance always and every time. Closer relations help develop mutual trust and help facilitate resolving complex situations. Enhanced people to people contact, good trade relations which bring down inflation, may act as a springboard towards resolution of our common issues.
Who knows, the Radcliffe line may lose its relevance similar to the now-in-ruins Berlin Wall and we progress and grow together as happy neighbours?
(Major General Ashok Kumar, VSM (retd) is a Kargil war veteran and defence analyst)
