Estimated by Grok.com
(Presentation by SR Darapuri, National President, All India Peoples Front )
(Asian independent) The recent escalation between India and Pakistan, specifically following the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor (May 7–10, 2025), was a brief but intense conflict. Below are the estimated per-day and total costs based on available analyses as of May 13, 2025:
Per-Day Cost
– India:
– Direct military costs for operations, including missile strikes, troop mobilization, and air patrols, are estimated at **Rs 1,460 crore to Rs 5,000 crore per day** (approximately **$171 million to $586 million**). This covers fuel, ammunition, and logistics.
– Broader economic disruptions (e.g., trade halts, market volatility) could push daily losses to **Rs 1.34 lakh crore** (approximately **$17.8 billion**) in a worst-case scenario, though this is less likely for the short duration.
– Pakistan:
– Military expenditure during the escalation, including troop deployments and missile tests, ranged from **$1.5 million to $3.2 million per day** for limited operations.
– For intensified conflict, daily costs could reach **$11.8 million to $83.2 million**, constrained by Pakistan’s economic fragility and $13.15 billion in foreign reserves.
Total Cost
– India:
– Over the 3.5-day conflict (May 7–10, 2025), total losses are estimated at **$6 billion to $20.5 billion**. This includes:
– Military operations: $598 million to $2.05 billion.
– Economic impacts: Trade disruptions (India-Pakistan trade, ~$1.2 billion annually, halted), flight cancellations, and stock market volatility (estimated 3–5% dip).
– Pakistan:
– Total losses over the same period are estimated at **$35.4 million to $249.6 million**, reflecting:
– Military costs: $5.25 million to $11.2 million for limited operations, up to $41.3 million to $291.2 million for higher intensity.
– Economic losses: Trade suspension ($2.4 billion annually affected), currency pressure (rupee potentially at Rs 285 per dollar), and supply chain disruptions.
– Combined Impact:
– Both nations faced indirect costs, including environmental damage, civilian displacement, and stalled regional initiatives (e.g., climate cooperation).
– The conflict’s brevity limited macroeconomic fallout, but India’s $4.39 trillion economy was better positioned to absorb shocks than Pakistan’s $338 billion economy.
Notes
– These figures are drawn from projections by sources like the Foreign Affairs Forum and economic analyses on X, but precise costs remain uncertain due to media blackouts and disinformation campaigns during the conflict.
– Costs are lower than those of prolonged wars (e.g., Kargil 1999, ~$2–4 billion total for India) due to the short duration.
– Estimates assume conventional warfare; nuclear escalation would drastically increase costs but is beyond current data.
– X posts highlight public concern over economic strain but lack verified specifics and should be cross-checked.
