THE ASIAN INDEPENDENT UK
Bal Ram Sampla
Geopolitics
America has just made a major investment in Balochistan. The US Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion for the Reko Diq mining project, one of the world’s largest copper and gold reserves. On paper, this looks like a smart move. America needs these minerals to compete with China, especially for military technology and batteries. Pakistan needs the money desperately.
The people of Balochistan were never asked. And that single fact might doom the entire project.
The Pattern: China’s Expensive Lesson
China learned this the hard way. For years, Beijing poured billions into Balochistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. They built roads, developed Gwadar Port, and started mining projects. They promised development and prosperity.
What they got instead was an insurgency. The Baloch Liberation Army and other armed groups attacked Chinese workers, kidnapped engineers, and sabotaged infrastructure. Just in 2024 alone, Baloch militants carried out over 300 attacks against Pakistani forces and foreign projects. In March 2025, they hijacked the Jaffar Express train, taking hundreds of passengers hostage. In one coordinated operation called “Operation Herof” in August 2024, they launched attacks across the entire province, killing over 70 people.
Why? Because the Baloch people see these projects as theft. Foreign companies extract their gold, their copper, their gas, while Balochistan remains one of Pakistan’s poorest regions. The profits flow to Islamabad and foreign shareholders. Local people get nothing except military checkpoints and surveillance. As one analysis put it bluntly: these deals are made without local consent, and ignoring this reality turns mining sites into battlegrounds.
America Enters the Same Trap
Now America is walking into the exact same situation. The US deal was signed in Islamabad, far from Balochistan. Pakistani politicians celebrated. American officials talked about countering China’s mineral dominance. Nobody asked the Baloch people what they wanted.
Baloch leaders have been crystal clear about this. They’ve publicly condemned the US deal, calling it a “strategic mistake” that will deepen their marginalization. The Baloch Yakjehti Committee stated firmly that these agreements violate international principles because they lack explicit consent from the Baloch people. Armed Baloch groups have declared that no foreign investment is welcome without their approval.
The message couldn’t be clearer: America will face the same resistance that China faced, for the same reasons.
Two Paths Forward
So what will America do? There are two basic options.
1.Path One: Crack Down on the Insurgency
The United States could work with Pakistan’s military to crush the Baloch resistance through force. In fact, this is already starting. In August 2025, America officially designated the Baloch Liberation Army as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. This gives legal cover for Pakistani military operations and potentially US counterterrorism support.
Some analysts see this as inevitable. If America wants those minerals, they’ll need to “confront or suppress” the Baloch struggle for self-determination. Pakistan’s military would welcome this support. They’ve been fighting this insurgency for years with brutal tactics: forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and heavy surveillance. Just in the first nine weeks of 2025, there were 70 insurgent incidents that killed 135 Pakistani security personnel.
But here’s the problem: force hasn’t worked. Despite years of military operations, the insurgency is stronger than ever. It’s grown from a few tribes to a pan-Balochistan movement cutting across tribal and gender lines. Young women are now joining as suicide bombers. The militants hijack trains, occupy towns, and launch coordinated attacks across the province. Brute force has only created more insurgents, not fewer.
2. Path Two: Something Different?
Could America do something China never tried? Could it actually engage with the Baloch people?
This would mean: requiring genuine local consent before any mining begins, ensuring Baloch communities benefit directly from resource extraction, supporting real political representation for Baloch voices, and protecting human rights instead of enabling military crackdowns.
It sounds simple. But it would require America to push back against Pakistan’s military establishment, which sees Balochistan as territory to exploit, not people to serve. It would mean accepting smaller profits in exchange for sustainable operations. It would require patience and genuine development, not just extraction.
There’s no sign America is interested in this path. The US-Pakistan counterterrorism dialogue in August 2025 focused on combating the BLA as a terrorist threat. There was no mention of addressing Baloch grievances or requiring local consent for resource projects.
The Likely Outcome
History suggests America will choose Path One. They’ll support Pakistan’s military crackdown, label all resistance as terrorism, and try to secure the mining operations through force.
This will fail, just as it failed for China. The Baloch people have been fighting for their rights since 1947. They’ve survived five waves of insurgency. They’re not going to stop now just because America designates them as terrorists.
The insurgency will grow. American projects will face the same attacks Chinese projects face. Mining equipment will be sabotaged. Workers will be kidnapped. Roads will be blocked. Every year, the situation will get worse, not better, because the root cause—exploitation without consent—remains untouched.
In regions like Balochistan, where locals feel their resources are being stolen by outsiders, no amount of military force creates lasting security. The state can patrol the roads, build checkpoints, send in special forces. But they cannot mine copper or extract gold in a war zone. Eventually, the costs become too high, the project stalls, and the investors lose money anyway.
The Bitter Truth
Pakistan has sold out Balochistan to raise quick money. First to China, now to America. The Pakistani state is economically desperate, trapped in debt, and willing to accept any deal that brings foreign capital—even if it means more violence in Balochistan.
The Baloch people see this clearly. They watch as their land is divided up between foreign powers—China gets Gwadar Port, Canada gets mining rights, America gets Reko Diq. Nobody asks the Baloch. Nobody compensates them fairly. Nobody gives them control over their own resources.
So they fight. Not because they hate development or progress, but because development means nothing if it’s imposed by force and the benefits go elsewhere.
America is about to learn what China already knows: you cannot build sustainable projects on occupied land without local consent. The minerals might be in the ground, but getting them out requires cooperation from the people who live there.
Right now, America has no such cooperation. And based on their actions, they’re not seeking it either. They’re seeking military solutions to political problems. That path leads to the same place China ended up: billions spent, workers attacked, projects stalled, and an insurgency that grows stronger every year.
The question isn’t whether America will face resistance in Balochistan. The question is whether they’ll learn from China’s mistakes before it’s too late. So far, the answer appears to be no.
References
1.https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/the-geopolitics-of-extraction-us-strategic-gaze-on-balochistan/
2.https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/us-commits-125-billion-for-major-mining-project-in-pakistans-balochistan20251210180352/
3.https://ianslive.in/pakistan-mineral-deal-will-us-learn-what-china-didnt-in-balochistan–20250808193334
4.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/25/strategic-handshake-how-pakistan-is-wooing-trump-with-critical-minerals
5.https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-baloch-insurgency-in-pakistan-evolution-tactics-and-regional-security-implications/
